Thursday Night Football picks, predictions by model on 168-118 run
Teams looking to rebound from disappointing losses will kick off Week 5 of the 2023 NFL schedule when the Washington Commanders (2-2) host the Chicago Bears (0-4) on Thursday Night Football. Washington is coming off its second straight defeat, a 34-31 overtime setback at Philadelphia in which it owned a 10-point lead in the second quarter. Chicago saw its franchise-record losing streak reach 14 games after it dropped a 31-28 home decision to Denver after squandering a 21-point advantage in the second half.
Kickoff from FedExField in Landover, Md. is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Washington is a 6.5-point favorite in the latest Bears vs. Commanders odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 44.5. Before making any Commanders vs. Bears picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s Advanced Computer Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 5 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 168-118 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 22-10 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has set its sights on Commanders vs. Bears and just locked in its picks and Thursday Night Football predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Bears vs. Commanders:
Bears vs. Commanders spread: Washington -6.5
Bears vs. Commanders over/under: 44.5 points
Bears vs. Commanders money line: Washington -300, Chicago +239
WAS: Commanders are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven meetings with Chicago
CHI: Bears are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 overall games
Bears vs. Commanders picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Commanders can cover
After getting manhandled by Buffalo in its previous game, Washington gave the undefeated Eagles all they could handle in Week 4. The Commanders, who managed just a final-minute field goal in their 37-3 loss to the Bills after scoring a total of 55 points over their first two games of the year, built a double-digit lead in the first half and erased a pair of deficits in the fourth quarter. The club forced overtime against Philadelphia when Sam Howell threw a 10-yard touchdown pass to Jahan Dotson on the final play of regulation.
The 23-year-old Howell racked up 290 passing yards without an interception against the defending NFC champions a week after registering only 170 yards and getting picked off four times against Buffalo. Brian Robinson Jr. rushed for 45 yards and his third TD of the season in the loss at Philadelphia after recording just two scoring runs as a rookie in 2022. See which team to pick here.
Why the Bears can cover
Chicago was on its way to its first victory since Week 7 of the 2022 campaign last Sunday after it possessed a 28-7 lead over the Broncos late in the third quarter before collapsing. The Bears outgained Denver 471-311 overall and 171-97 on the ground while having a 26-17 advantage in first downs. Khalil Herbert recorded his third career 100-yard rushing performance and first since Week 3 of last season, gaining 103 yards on 18 carries, and also hauled in a touchdown pass.
Justin Fields came up with a herculean effort against the Broncos, atoning for an outing against Kansas City the previous week in which he threw for only 99 yards. The 24-year-old quarterback completed his first 16 pass attempts, the longest streak at any point in a game in team history, before ending the first half with an incompletion on a Hail Mary. Fields finished with career-highs of 335 passing yards and four TD tosses, including two to tight end Cole Kmet. See which team to pick here.